Derde Divisie - Saturday · Oct 18, 2025 12:30
Excelsior
PWR 34
Hsc 21
PWR 39
Excelsior
PWR 34
2 - 0
FT
Hsc 21
PWR 39
47%
25%
28%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (42% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
42%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (19%)0-0 (16%)1-1 (12%)2-0 (11%)0-1 (10%)2-1 (7%)
WRONG 2-0
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
28%
Under 2.5
72%
72%
BTTS
No
No 34%
Over 3.5
53%
Team Comparison
40Attack53
33Defense28
Goals/G
1.11.5
Conc/G
1.92.1
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Excelsior
LLLLW
DOWN
Hsc 21
DLDLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk27%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw risk
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.0
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Excelsiorvs
0.66
Hsc 21Goal Probability
Excelsior
0
30%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4
3%
Hsc 21
0
52%
1
34%
2
11%
3
3%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
2-1 (9%)3-1 (8%)1-1 (7%)2-0 (7%)2-2 (6%)3-0 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 90% | 11% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% | - |
| 4.5 | 34% | 66% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 19% | 81% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
League Position
#19
Excelsior-10
Gap#9
Hsc 21
WR 29% 14 pts
WR 35% 25 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 27 | 14 |
| Hsc 21 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 25 |
Excelsior
4.0%
| Oct 11 | Excelsi… v ADO '20 | 2-0 |
| Oct 04 | Excelsi… v Heerenv… | 2-1 |
| Sep 27 | Excelsi… v Huizen | 4-2 |
| Sep 27 | Excelsi… v PSV Ein… | 1-2 |
| Sep 20 | Excelsi… v FC Vole… | 1-2 |
| Sep 20 | Excelsi… v Eemdijk | 0-3 |
| Sep 14 | Excelsi… v Sparta … | 0-1 |
| Sep 13 | Excelsi… v Sparta … | 4-3 |
| Sep 06 | Excelsi… v DVS 33 … | 0-1 |
| Aug 30 | Excelsi… v FC Twen… | 1-0 |
Hsc 21
4.0%
| Oct 11 | Hsc 21 v Sportlu… | 0-0 |
| Sep 27 | Hsc 21 v SC Gene… | 3-2 |
| Sep 20 | Hsc 21 v Huizen | 1-1 |
| Sep 13 | Hsc 21 v Eemdijk | 5-1 |
| Sep 06 | Hsc 21 v Sparta … | 2-3 |
| Aug 30 | Hsc 21 v DVS 33 … | 3-0 |
| Aug 24 | Hsc 21 v Hoogeve… | 2-4 |
| Aug 16 | Hsc 21 v Dovo | 6-0 |
| May 24 | Hsc 21 v Harkema… | 2-2 |
| May 17 | Hsc 21 v Excelsi… | 2-0 |
Head-to-Head (1)
| May 17, 2025 | Hsc 21 | 2-0 | Excelsior |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
67%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Excelsior struggling (4L in last 5)
Hsc 21 struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.