Copa Ecuador · Oct 13, 2025 23:00
Independiente del Valle
PWR 61
Universidad CatĂłlica
PWR 54
Independiente del Valle
PWR 61
1 - 2
FT
Universidad CatĂłlica
PWR 54
43%
25%
32%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Independiente del Valle to win (61% confidence)
Score
2-1
Confidence
61%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (15%)2-0 (12%)1-1 (12%)0-0 (10%)2-1 (9%)0-1 (7%)
WRONG 1-2
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
BTTS
No 42%
Over 3.5
36%
Team Comparison
58Attack53
69Defense59
Goals/G
1.71.5
Conc/G
0.91.2
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Independiente …
WLWWD
STABLE
Universidad Ca…
WWDDW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateH2H: 2/8 draws (25%) = HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw risk
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.0
Expected Goals (xG)
1.58
Independiente …vs
0.75
Universidad Ca…Goal Probability
Independien…
0
21%
1
33%
2
26%
3
14%
4
5%
Universidad…
0
47%
1
35%
2
13%
3
3%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (15%)1-0 (12%)3-0 (12%)2-1 (8%)4-0 (7%)1-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 5% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% | - |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% | - |
| 4.5 | 19% | 81% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 4% | 97% | UNDER |
League Position
#2
Independien…+1
Gap#3
Universidad…
WR 56% 16 pts
WR 50% 11 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente… | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 16 |
| Universidad C… | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 11 |
Independiente …
14.0%
| Oct 09 | Indepen… v Gualace… | 0-6 |
| Oct 08 | Indepen… v Rionegr… | 2-1 |
| Oct 05 | Indepen… v FC Barc… | 0-3 |
| Oct 02 | Indepen… v Santa Fe | 0-3 |
| Sep 28 | Indepen… v DelfĂn … | 0-0 |
| Sep 27 | Indepen… v Deporte… | 2-3 |
| Sep 25 | Indepen… v Once Ca… | 0-2 |
| Sep 24 | Indepen… v Santa Fe | 1-2 |
| Sep 21 | Indepen… v Junior | 2-2 |
| Sep 20 | Indepen… v Mushuc … | 2-2 |
Universidad Ca…
16.0%
| Oct 12 | Univers… v Curicó … | 2-0 |
| Oct 09 | Univers… v Ñublense | 1-0 |
| Oct 05 | Univers… v LDU Qui… | 2-2 |
| Oct 05 | Univers… v Moca | 2-2 |
| Oct 04 | Univers… v Union S… | 2-1 |
| Oct 01 | Univers… v Mount P… | 2-0 |
| Sep 28 | Univers… v Deporte… | 1-1 |
| Sep 28 | Univers… v Deporti… | 2-1 |
| Sep 27 | Univers… v Atlánti… | 2-1 |
| Sep 26 | Univers… v Alianza… | 2-1 |
Head-to-Head (8)
| Jun 29, 2025 | Universidad C… | 0-3 | Independiente… |
| Mar 02, 2025 | Independiente… | 1-1 | Universidad C… |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Independiente… | 1-2 | Universidad C… |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Universidad C… | 0-1 | Independiente… |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Independiente… | 5-2 | Universidad C… |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Universidad C… | 2-2 | Independiente… |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Independiente… | 0-1 | Universidad C… |
| Mar 31, 2023 | Universidad C… | 2-3 | Independiente… |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
78%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Independiente del Valle in strong form (3W in last 5)
Universidad CatĂłlica in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.