Super Copa · Jan 31, 2024 23:30
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 63
Defensor Sporting
PWR 23
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 63
1 - 0
FT
Defensor Sporting
PWR 23
53%
23%
24%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Under 2.5
Goals · Low scoring expected: 1.2 total goals avg
80%
accuracy
1.7x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Peñarol Montevideo Win
Score
2-0
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (28%)0-0 (21%)2-0 (18%)3-0 (8%)1-1 (7%)0-1 (5%)
CORRECT 1-0
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
21%
Under 2.5
79%
79%
BTTS
No
No 16%
Over 3.5
4%
Team Comparison
35Attack0
88Defense65
Goals/G
1.00.0
Conc/G
0.31.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Peñarol Montev…
LWLDW
STABLE
Defensor Sport…
LLLLW
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk25%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (24.7%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.33
Peñarol Montev…vs
0.24
Defensor Sport…Goal Probability
Peñarol Mon…
0
26%
1
35%
2
23%
3
10%
4
3%
Defensor Sp…
0
79%
1
19%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (28%)1-0 (25%)0-1 (11%)2-0 (11%)1-1 (10%)2-1 (4%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 72% | 28% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 36% | 64% | - |
| 2.5 | 14% | 86% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 4% | 96% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Peñarol Mon…+2
Gap#3
Defensor Sp…
WR 67% 7 pts
WR 0% 0 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peñarol Monte… | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| Defensor Spor… | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Peñarol Montev…
10.0%
| Dec 16 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 0-1 |
| Dec 13 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 2-0 |
| Dec 09 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 0-1 |
| Dec 06 | Peñarol… v Rangers… | 0-0 |
| Dec 06 | Peñarol… v River P… | 2-1 |
| Dec 03 | Peñarol… v Deporti… | 0-2 |
| Dec 02 | Peñarol… v Racing … | 1-1 |
| Nov 29 | Peñarol… v Boston … | 2-0 |
| Nov 28 | Peñarol… v Fenix | 0-1 |
| Nov 25 | Peñarol… v Plaza C… | 0-0 |
Defensor Sport…
4.0%
| Dec 07 | Defenso… v Danubio | 0-2 |
| Dec 04 | Defenso… v Club Na… | 1-0 |
| Nov 30 | Defenso… v River P… | 0-1 |
| Nov 25 | Defenso… v Deporti… | 2-1 |
| Nov 20 | Defenso… v Boston … | 2-0 |
| Nov 15 | Defenso… v Cerrito | 1-1 |
| Oct 21 | Defenso… v Cerro L… | 2-0 |
| Oct 13 | Defenso… v Atletic… | 2-0 |
| Aug 25 | Defenso… v Randers… | 3-0 |
| Jun 18 | Defenso… v Randers… | 2-0 |
Decision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
81%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (46%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Defensor Sporting struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.