Copa Uruguay · Oct 16, 2025 00:00
Defensor Sporting
PWR 57
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 63
Defensor Sporting
PWR 57
0 - 2
FT
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 63
43%
25%
32%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Defensor Sporting to win (61% confidence)
Score
2-1
Confidence
61%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (17%)1-0 (15%)3-0 (13%)2-1 (8%)0-0 (7%)1-1 (7%)
WRONG 0-2
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS
No
No 32%
Over 3.5
3%
Team Comparison
48Attack65
68Defense55
Goals/G
1.41.9
Conc/G
0.91.3
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Defensor Sport…
LWWDW
STABLE
Peñarol Montev…
DDWWW
STABLE
Match Events
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M. Arezo
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19 - 8
3 - 0
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk28%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw risk
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.23
Defensor Sport…vs
0.44
Peñarol Montev…Goal Probability
Defensor Sp…
0
11%
1
24%
2
27%
3
20%
4
11%
Peñarol Mon…
0
64%
1
28%
2
6%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (30%)0-1 (20%)1-0 (16%)1-1 (11%)0-2 (7%)2-0 (4%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 70% | 30% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 33% | 67% | UNDER |
| 2.5 | 12% | 88% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Defensor Sp…+1
Gap#2
Peñarol Mon…
WR 55% 21 pts
WR 71% 15 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Spor… | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 21 |
| Peñarol Monte… | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 15 |
Defensor Sport…
14.0%
| Oct 11 | Defenso… v Cerrito | 1-0 |
| Oct 06 | Defenso… v Randers… | 2-1 |
| Oct 02 | Defenso… v Central… | 2-0 |
| Sep 29 | Defenso… v Miramar | 0-0 |
| Sep 19 | Defenso… v Danubio | 2-1 |
| Sep 13 | Defenso… v Cerro L… | 1-0 |
| Sep 05 | Defenso… v Juventus | 1-0 |
| Aug 30 | Defenso… v Peñarol… | 2-0 |
| Aug 23 | Defenso… v Plaza C… | 1-0 |
| Aug 17 | Defenso… v Racing … | 0-1 |
Peñarol Montev…
16.0%
| Oct 11 | Peñarol… v Miramar | 2-2 |
| Oct 11 | Peñarol… v Racing … | 2-2 |
| Oct 05 | Peñarol… v Danubio | 2-0 |
| Oct 03 | Peñarol… v River P… | 0-1 |
| Sep 27 | Peñarol… v Cerro L… | 1-3 |
| Sep 27 | Peñarol… v Boston … | 2-1 |
| Sep 24 | Peñarol… v Tacuare… | 1-2 |
| Sep 21 | Peñarol… v Juventus | 1-0 |
| Sep 20 | Peñarol… v Club Na… | 3-1 |
| Sep 13 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 2-2 |
Head-to-Head (5)
| Aug 30, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-0 | Defensor Spor… |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-0 | Defensor Spor… |
| Oct 21, 2024 | Defensor Spor… | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-0 | Defensor Spor… |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-0 | Defensor Spor… |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
91%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Defensor Sporting in strong form (3W in last 5)
Peñarol Montevideo in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.