Copa Colombia · Dec 18, 2025 00:30
Independiente del Valle
PWR 52
Atlético Nacional
PWR 64
Independiente del Valle
PWR 52
0 - 1
FT
Atlético Nacional
PWR 64
51%
24%
25%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (26%)0-0 (19%)2-0 (18%)3-0 (8%)1-1 (8%)0-1 (6%)
WRONG 0-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
23%
Under 2.5
77%
77%
BTTS
No
No 19%
Over 3.5
19%
Team Comparison
43Attack60
67Defense74
Goals/G
1.21.7
Conc/G
1.00.8
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Independiente …
WDDWL
STABLE
Atlético Nacio…
DLWLD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk33%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateH2H: 6/10 draws (60%) = VERY HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent games
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.36
Independiente …vs
0.30
Atlético Nacio…Goal Probability
Independien…
0
26%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4
4%
Atlético Na…
0
74%
1
22%
2
3%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (15%)1-1 (12%)2-0 (11%)0-0 (11%)2-1 (9%)0-1 (9%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 90% | 11% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% | - |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 8% | 92% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#4
Independien…-2
Gap#2
Atlético Na…
WR 46% 34 pts
WR 58% 50 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente… | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 21 | 34 |
| Atlético Naci… | 24 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 41 | 18 | 50 |
Independiente …
12.0%
| Dec 14 | Indepen… v Univers… | 0-1 |
| Dec 13 | Indepen… v Atlétic… | 0-0 |
| Dec 10 | Indepen… v LDU Qui… | 0-0 |
| Dec 08 | Indepen… v Junior | 2-1 |
| Dec 04 | Indepen… v Atlétic… | 2-1 |
| Dec 02 | Indepen… v America… | 1-1 |
| Nov 29 | Indepen… v LDU Qui… | 2-1 |
| Nov 27 | Indepen… v America… | 2-1 |
| Nov 23 | Indepen… v Orense … | 0-0 |
| Nov 23 | Indepen… v Atlétic… | 0-0 |
Atlético Nacio…
8.0%
| Dec 13 | Atlétic… v Indepen… | 0-0 |
| Dec 08 | Atlétic… v America… | 3-2 |
| Dec 04 | Atlétic… v Indepen… | 2-1 |
| Nov 30 | Atlétic… v Junior | 2-1 |
| Nov 27 | Atlétic… v Junior | 1-1 |
| Nov 23 | Atlétic… v Indepen… | 0-0 |
| Nov 21 | Atlétic… v America… | 1-0 |
| Nov 16 | Atlétic… v America… | 2-2 |
| Nov 14 | Atlétic… v Junior | 2-1 |
| Nov 08 | Atlétic… v Rionegr… | 2-1 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Dec 13, 2025 | Atlético Naci… | 0-0 | Independiente… |
| Dec 04, 2025 | Atlético Naci… | 2-1 | Independiente… |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Independiente… | 0-0 | Atlético Naci… |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Atlético Naci… | 5-2 | Independiente… |
| Sep 08, 2025 | Independiente… | 3-3 | Atlético Naci… |
| May 04, 2025 | Independiente… | 1-1 | Atlético Naci… |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Atlético Naci… | 1-1 | Independiente… |
| Nov 18, 2024 | Independiente… | 1-0 | Atlético Naci… |
| Nov 11, 2024 | Atlético Naci… | 1-1 | Independiente… |
| Nov 01, 2024 | Atlético Naci… | 2-0 | Independiente… |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
81%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.