Super Cup · Jan 08, 2026 19:00
Real Madrid
PWR 49
Atlético Madrid
PWR 45
Real Madrid
PWR 49
1 - 2
FT
Atlético Madrid
PWR 45
43%
25%
32%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Over 2.5
Goals · Home scores 2.5/g, Away concedes 2.7/g, expected 4.5 goals
75%
accuracy
1.75x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Atlético Madrid Win
Score
3-2
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
2-1 (10%)1-1 (8%)2-0 (8%)3-1 (7%)1-0 (7%)3-0 (6%)
CORRECT 1-2
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
65%
65%
Under 2.5
35%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 63%
Over 3.5
71%
71%
Team Comparison
64Attack52
75Defense77
Goals/G
2.11.7
Conc/G
0.80.8
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Real Madrid
WWWLL
UP
Atlético Madrid
DWWWL
STABLE
Key Players
Real Madrid
Kylian Mbappé
6G
Gonzalo GarcĂa
5G1A
Rodrygo
2G3A
Federico Valver…
1G3A
VinĂcius JĂşnior
2G1A
Atlético Madrid
Alexander Sørlo…
4G
Antoine Griezma…
1G
Koke
2G
Giuliano Simeone
2A
Julián Alvarez
1A
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeAWAY
Draw Risk29%
Accuracy38%
AWAY_FORM_MOMENTUM
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateH2H: 3/9 draws (33%) = HIGH riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (28.5%) - VETO 1X2 | Away prediction needs 76%+ confidence
Expected Goals (xG)
2.33
Real Madridvs
1.20
Atlético MadridGoal Probability
Real Madrid
0
10%
1
23%
2
26%
3
21%
4
12%
Atlético Ma…
0
30%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4
3%
CORRECT SCORES
2-1 (7%)3-1 (7%)2-2 (6%)3-2 (6%)4-1 (5%)1-1 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 86% | 14% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 71% | 29% | OVER |
| 4.5 | 53% | 47% | - |
| 5.5 | 35% | 65% | - |
| 6.5 | 21% | 79% | UNDER |
League Position
#2
Real Madrid+1
Gap#3
Atlético Ma…
WR 50% 13 pts
WR 33% 3 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 13 |
| Atlético Madr… | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
Real Madrid
12.0%
| Jan 04 | Real Ma… v Real Be… | 5-1 |
| Dec 20 | Real Ma… v Sevilla | 2-0 |
| Dec 14 | Real Ma… v Alavés | 1-2 |
| Dec 10 | Real Ma… v Manches… | 1-2 |
| Dec 07 | Real Ma… v Celta d… | 0-2 |
| Dec 03 | Real Ma… v Athleti… | 0-3 |
| Nov 30 | Real Ma… v Girona | 1-1 |
| Nov 26 | Real Ma… v Olympia… | 3-4 |
| Nov 23 | Real Ma… v Elche | 2-2 |
| Nov 09 | Real Ma… v Rayo Va… | 0-0 |
Atlético Madrid
14.0%
| Jan 04 | Atlétic… v Real So… | 1-1 |
| Dec 21 | Atlétic… v Girona | 0-3 |
| Dec 13 | Atlétic… v Valencia | 2-1 |
| Dec 09 | Atlétic… v PSV Ein… | 2-3 |
| Dec 06 | Atlétic… v Athleti… | 1-0 |
| Dec 02 | Atlétic… v FC Barc… | 3-1 |
| Nov 29 | Atlétic… v Oviedo | 2-0 |
| Nov 26 | Atlétic… v Inter M… | 2-1 |
| Nov 23 | Atlétic… v Getafe | 0-1 |
| Nov 08 | Atlétic… v Levante | 3-1 |
Head-to-Head (9)
| Sep 27, 2025 | Atlético Madr… | 5-2 | Real Madrid |
| Mar 12, 2025 | Atlético Madr… | 1-0 | Real Madrid |
| Mar 04, 2025 | Real Madrid | 2-1 | Atlético Madr… |
| Feb 08, 2025 | Real Madrid | 1-1 | Atlético Madr… |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Atlético Madr… | 1-1 | Real Madrid |
| Feb 04, 2024 | Real Madrid | 1-1 | Atlético Madr… |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Atlético Madr… | 4-2 | Real Madrid |
| Jan 10, 2024 | Real Madrid | 5-3 | Atlético Madr… |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Atlético Madr… | 3-1 | Real Madrid |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
82%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (38%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Real Madrid in strong form (3W in last 5)
Atlético Madrid in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.