Copa De La Liga Auf · Jan 22, 2026 23:30
Club Nacional
PWR 35
Progreso
PWR 29
Club Nacional
PWR 35
1 - 1
FT
Progreso
PWR 29
55%
23%
22%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Under 2.5
Goals · Low scoring expected: 1.4 total goals avg
80%
accuracy
1.7x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Club Nacional Win
Score
1-0
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (29%)0-0 (26%)2-0 (16%)1-1 (7%)3-0 (6%)0-1 (6%)
WRONG 1-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
15%
Under 2.5
85%
85%
BTTS
No
No 14%
Over 3.5
7%
Team Comparison
23Attack18
77Defense65
Goals/G
0.70.5
Conc/G
0.71.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Club Nacional
DDWDD
STABLE
Progreso
LDDLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk29%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 4/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (29.2%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Club Nacionalvs
0.23
ProgresoGoal Probability
Club Nacion…
0
33%
1
37%
2
21%
3
8%
4
2%
Progreso
0
80%
1
18%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (25%)0-0 (23%)2-0 (14%)1-1 (10%)0-1 (9%)2-1 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 78% | 23% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 44% | 56% | - |
| 2.5 | 19% | 81% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#6
Club Nacion…+2
Gap#8
Progreso
WR 0% 3 pts
WR 0% 2 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Nacional | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Progreso | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Club Nacional
12.0%
| Jan 17 | Club Na… v Cerro L… | 1-1 |
| Jan 14 | Club Na… v Deporti… | 0-0 |
| Nov 30 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 1-0 |
| Nov 23 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 2-2 |
| Nov 09 | Club Na… v Defenso… | 1-1 |
| Nov 01 | Club Na… v Cerrito | 0-0 |
| Oct 26 | Club Na… v Wandere… | 0-0 |
| Oct 18 | Club Na… v Miramar | 3-1 |
| Oct 12 | Club Na… v Danubio | 0-0 |
| Oct 04 | Club Na… v Cerro L… | 2-1 |
Progreso
4.0%
| Jan 19 | Progreso v Juventus | 0-1 |
| Jan 12 | Progreso v Defenso… | 0-0 |
| Nov 09 | Progreso v Juventus | 1-1 |
| Nov 01 | Progreso v Atletic… | 0-5 |
| Oct 26 | Progreso v Peñarol… | 3-1 |
| Oct 19 | Progreso v Defenso… | 2-3 |
| Oct 10 | Progreso v Plaza C… | 0-1 |
| Oct 05 | Progreso v Cerrito | 2-0 |
| Sep 29 | Progreso v Racing … | 0-0 |
| Sep 21 | Progreso v Rangers… | 2-0 |
Head-to-Head (9)
| Aug 16, 2025 | Club Nacional | 3-1 | Progreso |
| May 23, 2025 | Club Nacional | 1-0 | Progreso |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Progreso | 1-5 | Club Nacional |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Progreso | 0-3 | Club Nacional |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Club Nacional | 0-0 | Progreso |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Club Nacional | 0-1 | Progreso |
| May 23, 2021 | Progreso | 1-3 | Club Nacional |
| Feb 18, 2021 | Progreso | 0-1 | Club Nacional |
| Aug 26, 2020 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Progreso |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
79%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Progreso struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.