Primeira Liga · Feb 21, 2026 18:00
Benfica
PWR 35
Benfica
PWR 35
3 - 0
FT
AVS
PWR 35
PWR 35
57%
23%
20%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
1X (Home/Draw)
Double Chance · Odds imply 87% home + 9% draw = 96% combined
97%
accuracy
1.09x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Benfica Win
Score
4-1
Confidence
86%
TierELITE
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (8%)3-1 (6%)2-0 (5%)2-1 (4%)3-2 (2%)1-0 (2%)
CORRECT 3-0
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
DC 1X
96%
Home/Draw
1.09x
DC X2
Away/Draw
8.14x
Over 2.5
60%
60%
Under 2.5
40%
BTTS
Yes 54%
Over 3.5
59%
59%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Benfica
LWWDW
STABLE
AVS
WLLLD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy88%
AWAY_LEAKINGFORM_DOMINANTPOSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAPTABLE_EXTREMESODDS_CONFIRM_75
Full data available (Tier 1)Bookmaker consensus confirms HOME at 87%Home team draws 38% at home = very high riskH2H: 2/5 draws (40%) = VERY HIGH riskCombined DR 64% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (30.5%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
4.50
Benficavs
0.80
AVSGoal Probability
Benfica
0
1%
1
5%
2
11%
3
17%
4
19%
AVS
0
45%
1
36%
2
14%
3
4%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
3-0 (12%)4-0 (10%)2-0 (10%)3-1 (7%)5-0 (7%)4-1 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% | - |
| 4.5 | 40% | 60% | - |
| 5.5 | 24% | 76% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 13% | 88% | UNDER |
League Position
#3
Benfica+15
Gap#18
AVS
WR 62% 59 pts
WR 0% 10 pts
Benfica
14.0%
| Feb 17 | Benfica v Real Ma… | 0-1 |
| Feb 13 | Benfica v Santa C… | 1-2 |
| Feb 08 | Benfica v Alverca | 2-1 |
| Feb 01 | Benfica v Tondela | 0-0 |
| Jan 28 | Benfica v Real Ma… | 4-2 |
| Jan 25 | Benfica v Estrela… | 4-0 |
| Jan 21 | Benfica v Juventus | 2-0 |
| Jan 17 | Benfica v Rio Ave… | 0-2 |
| Jan 14 | Benfica v FC Porto | 1-0 |
| Jan 13 | Benfica v Newcast… | 0-5 |
AVS
6.0%
| Feb 15 | AVS v Estoril | 3-0 |
| Feb 09 | AVS v Famalic… | 3-1 |
| Feb 05 | AVS v Sportin… | 3-2 |
| Feb 02 | AVS v SC Braga | 0-4 |
| Jan 23 | AVS v Casa Pi… | 3-3 |
| Jan 17 | AVS v Arouca | 0-1 |
| Jan 03 | AVS v Moreire… | 0-2 |
| Dec 29 | AVS v FC Porto | 2-0 |
| Dec 21 | AVS v Nacional | 2-2 |
| Dec 17 | AVS v Guimara… | 0-1 |
Head-to-Head (5)
| Sep 20, 2025 | AVS | 0-3 | Benfica |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Benfica | 6-0 | AVS |
| Dec 15, 2024 | AVS | 1-1 | Benfica |
| Dec 15, 2024 | AVS | 1-1 | Benfica |
| Dec 21, 2023 | Benfica | 4-1 | AVS |
Decision Breakdown
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)ODDS60+M70 (77.4%)TOP3vsBot (75.8%)M85+S60 (75.3%)TOP3_VS_REL (80.8%)GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)CS65+DR<30 (68.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
93%
Market
100%
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Benfica in strong form (3W in last 5)
AVS struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.