Ykkösliiga · Oct 18, 2025 12:00
Tukums
PWR 35
FC Lahti
PWR 52
Tukums
PWR 35
3 - 3
FT
FC Lahti
PWR 52
45%
25%
30%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Over 2.5
Goals · Home scores 2.3/g, Away concedes 1.8/g, expected 4.5 goals
75%
accuracy
1.75x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Tukums Win
Score
3-3
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (14%)2-0 (13%)1-1 (10%)2-1 (9%)3-0 (8%)0-0 (7%)
WRONG 3-3
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS
No 43%
Over 3.5
47%
Team Comparison
82Attack88
18Defense39
Goals/G
2.32.5
Conc/G
2.31.8
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Tukums
LWWLL
STABLE
FC Lahti
WDDLD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk32%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateH2H: 3/5 draws (60%) = VERY HIGH riskAway team drew 3/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (31.9%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.90
Tukumsvs
0.71
FC LahtiGoal Probability
Tukums
0
15%
1
28%
2
27%
3
17%
4
8%
FC Lahti
0
49%
1
35%
2
12%
3
3%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (9%)2-1 (8%)1-2 (8%)2-2 (7%)1-0 (5%)0-1 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% | - |
| 4.5 | 28% | 72% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 15% | 86% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 7% | 93% | UNDER |
League Position
#10
Tukums-1
Gap#9
FC Lahti
WR 0% 3 pts
WR 25% 6 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 |
| FC Lahti | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 6 |
Tukums
8.0%
| Oct 04 | Tukums v Grobiņa | 1-0 |
| Sep 28 | Tukums v Super N… | 2-1 |
| Sep 20 | Tukums v Metta /… | 3-2 |
| Sep 14 | Tukums v FK Liep… | 4-1 |
| Aug 30 | Tukums v BFC Dau… | 0-1 |
| Aug 23 | Tukums v FS Jelg… | 1-1 |
| Aug 10 | Tukums v Auda | 1-0 |
| Aug 03 | Tukums v Riga FC | 0-1 |
| Jul 26 | Tukums v RÄ«gas FS | 6-2 |
| Jul 21 | Tukums v Grobiņa | 2-1 |
FC Lahti
10.0%
| Oct 03 | FC Lahti v SJK Aka… | 3-0 |
| Jul 14 | FC Lahti v Tukums | 2-2 |
| May 21 | FC Lahti v Tukums | 2-2 |
| Mar 29 | FC Lahti v Tukums | 3-2 |
| Oct 05 | FC Lahti v IF Gnis… | 2-2 |
| Sep 19 | FC Lahti v IFK Mar… | 2-1 |
| Aug 18 | FC Lahti v IFK Mar… | 0-0 |
| Aug 03 | FC Lahti v HJK Hel… | 2-1 |
| Jun 19 | FC Lahti v IF Gnis… | 3-3 |
| Jun 02 | FC Lahti v IF Gnis… | 2-1 |
Head-to-Head (5)
| Jul 14, 2025 | FC Lahti | 2-2 | Tukums |
| May 21, 2025 | Tukums | 2-2 | FC Lahti |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Tukums | 3-2 | FC Lahti |
| Sep 17, 2020 | FC Lahti | 1-1 | Tukums |
| Jul 25, 2020 | Tukums | 1-3 | FC Lahti |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
83%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (35%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Tukums struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.