Challenge Cup · Feb 17, 2026 19:45
ST Johnstone
PWR 67
Ayr Utd
PWR 59
ST Johnstone
PWR 67
3 - 3
FT
Ayr Utd
PWR 59
45%
25%
30%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Over 2.5
Goals · Home scores 2.0/g, Away concedes 1.9/g, expected 3.6 goals
75%
accuracy
1.75x
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: ST Johnstone to win (60% confidence)
Score
2-1
Confidence
60%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (19%)1-0 (17%)3-0 (15%)0-0 (7%)2-1 (6%)1-1 (5%)
WRONG 3-3
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
83%
Home/Draw
1.26x
DC X2
Away/Draw
2.61x
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
BTTS
No
No 25%
Over 3.5
34%
Team Comparison
70Attack85
65Defense35
Goals/G
2.02.4
Conc/G
1.01.9
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
ST Johnstone
WDLWW
STABLE
Ayr Utd
WLWWD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): Challenge Cup
Expected Goals (xG)
2.28
ST Johnstonevs
0.32
Ayr UtdGoal Probability
ST Johnstone
0
10%
1
23%
2
27%
3
20%
4
12%
Ayr Utd
0
73%
1
23%
2
4%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (11%)1-0 (11%)2-1 (10%)1-1 (10%)3-0 (8%)3-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 5% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 80% | 21% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% | - |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 18% | 82% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 8% | 92% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
League Position
#29
ST Johnstone-13
Gap#16
Ayr Utd
WR 67% 7 pts
WR 57% 13 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| Ayr Utd | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 13 |
ST Johnstone
14.0%
| Feb 13 | ST John… v Airdrie… | 0-1 |
| Jan 30 | ST John… v Partick | 2-2 |
| Jan 24 | ST John… v Dunferm… | 0-1 |
| Jan 13 | ST John… v Ross Co… | 2-0 |
| Jan 03 | ST John… v Arbroath | 1-0 |
| Dec 27 | ST John… v Ross Co… | 0-0 |
| Dec 20 | ST John… v Morton | 5-0 |
| Dec 16 | ST John… v Hearts … | 0-1 |
| Dec 12 | ST John… v Ayr Utd | 2-4 |
| Dec 06 | ST John… v Raith R… | 0-0 |
Ayr Utd
14.0%
| Jan 31 | Ayr Utd v Raith R… | 2-1 |
| Jan 24 | Ayr Utd v Partick | 2-1 |
| Jan 17 | Ayr Utd v Dundee … | 2-0 |
| Jan 13 | Ayr Utd v Stranra… | 4-1 |
| Jan 10 | Ayr Utd v Airdrie… | 1-1 |
| Dec 27 | Ayr Utd v Morton | 1-1 |
| Dec 20 | Ayr Utd v Dunferm… | 2-3 |
| Dec 12 | Ayr Utd v ST John… | 2-4 |
| Dec 09 | Ayr Utd v Peterhe… | 2-1 |
| Dec 06 | Ayr Utd v Partick | 0-0 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Dec 12, 2025 | Ayr Utd | 2-4 | ST Johnstone |
| Oct 04, 2025 | ST Johnstone | 0-0 | Ayr Utd |
| Jul 25, 2023 | ST Johnstone | 1-2 | Ayr Utd |
| Jul 23, 2022 | ST Johnstone | 1-0 | Ayr Utd |
Decision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
93%
Standings
50%
Market
62%
High draw risk (35%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
ST Johnstone in strong form (3W in last 5)
Ayr Utd in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.