Welsh Cup · Jan 31, 2026 17:15
Caernarfon Town
PWR 58
Colwyn Bay
PWR 48
Caernarfon Town
PWR 58
4 - 1
FT
Colwyn Bay
PWR 48
45%
25%
30%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Over 2.5
Goals · Home scores 2.3/g, Away concedes 1.8/g, expected 3.7 goals
75%
accuracy
1.75x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Caernarfon Town Win
Score
3-2
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
0-1 (16%)1-1 (13%)0-0 (12%)0-2 (10%)1-0 (10%)1-2 (8%)
CORRECT 4-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.49x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.91x
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
65%
BTTS
No 41%
Over 3.5
73%
73%
Team Comparison
79Attack56
42Defense37
Goals/G
2.31.6
Conc/G
1.71.8
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Caernarfon Town
DDWDD
STABLE
Colwyn Bay
DLLWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk28%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 3% = 35.1% draw rateHome team drew 4/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (28.1%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.82
Caernarfon Townvs
1.29
Colwyn BayGoal Probability
Caernarfon …
0
44%
1
36%
2
15%
3
4%
4
1%
Colwyn Bay
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4
3%
CORRECT SCORES
3-1 (7%)2-1 (6%)3-2 (6%)4-1 (6%)2-2 (5%)4-2 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 96% | 4% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 87% | 13% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 73% | 27% | OVER |
| 4.5 | 55% | 45% | - |
| 5.5 | 38% | 62% | - |
| 6.5 | 23% | 77% | UNDER |
League Position
#3
Caernarfon …+2
Gap#5
Colwyn Bay
WR 53% 26 pts
WR 50% 15 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon To… | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 25 | 26 |
| Colwyn Bay | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 18 | 15 |
Caernarfon Town
12.0%
| Jan 30 | Caernar… v Llantwi… | 1-1 |
| Jan 24 | Caernar… v Penybont | 0-0 |
| Jan 23 | Caernar… v Afan Li… | 0-1 |
| Jan 13 | Caernar… v GAP Con… | 2-2 |
| Jan 10 | Caernar… v Cwmbran… | 2-2 |
| Jan 01 | Caernar… v Aberyst… | 1-1 |
| Dec 31 | Caernar… v Bala To… | 0-1 |
| Dec 27 | Caernar… v Colwyn … | 1-2 |
| Dec 26 | Caernar… v Ammanfo… | 0-1 |
| Dec 13 | Caernar… v Cambria… | 3-0 |
Colwyn Bay
10.0%
| Jan 24 | Colwyn … v GAP Con… | 2-2 |
| Jan 13 | Colwyn … v The New… | 1-0 |
| Jan 01 | Colwyn … v Flint T… | 1-2 |
| Dec 27 | Colwyn … v Caernar… | 1-2 |
| Dec 13 | Colwyn … v Pontypr… | 0-3 |
| Dec 05 | Colwyn … v GAP Con… | 2-1 |
| Nov 29 | Colwyn … v Penybont | 5-4 |
| Nov 22 | Colwyn … v Caernar… | 1-3 |
| Nov 15 | Colwyn … v Haverfo… | 1-0 |
| Nov 08 | Colwyn … v Llanell… | 3-1 |
Head-to-Head (6)
| Dec 27, 2025 | Caernarfon To… | 1-2 | Colwyn Bay |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Caernarfon To… | 1-3 | Colwyn Bay |
| Oct 04, 2025 | Colwyn Bay | 1-0 | Caernarfon To… |
| Aug 01, 2025 | Caernarfon To… | 3-0 | Colwyn Bay |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Caernarfon To… | 2-1 | Colwyn Bay |
| Aug 13, 2023 | Colwyn Bay | 0-4 | Caernarfon To… |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
45%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.