DFB Pokal · Feb 03, 2026 19:45
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
PWR 42
FC St. Pauli
PWR 35
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
PWR 42
3 - 0
FT
FC St. Pauli
PWR 35
59%
22%
19%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Over 2.5
Goals · Home scores 2.5/g, Away concedes 2.0/g, expected 3.4 goals
75%
accuracy
1.75x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Win
Score
5-1
Confidence
55%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (12%)2-0 (12%)1-1 (10%)2-1 (10%)3-0 (7%)0-0 (7%)
CORRECT 3-0
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
85%
Home/Draw
1.24x
DC X2
Away/Draw
2.85x
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
BTTS
No 48%
Over 3.5
27%
Team Comparison
60Attack0
59Defense100
Goals/G
2.00.0
Conc/G
1.40.0
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Bayer 04 Lever…
WWWLL
UP
FC St. Pauli
LDDLL
STABLE
Key Players
Bayer 04 Lever…
Alejandro Grima…
1G2A
Aleix GarcĂa
1G1A
Martin Terrier
1G
Malik Tillman
1G
Ibrahim Maza
1A
FC St. Pauli
Eric Smith
1G2A
Danel Sinani
1G
James Sands
1G
Adam Dźwigała
1A
Mathias Pereira…
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk27%
Accuracy56%
POSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAP
Full data available (Tier 1)H2H: 1/4 draws (25%) = HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (27.1%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.89
Bayer 04 Lever…vs
0.84
FC St. PauliGoal Probability
Bayer 04 Le…
0
15%
1
29%
2
27%
3
17%
4
8%
FC St. Pauli
0
43%
1
36%
2
15%
3
4%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (17%)1-0 (16%)3-0 (13%)2-1 (8%)0-0 (7%)4-0 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% | - |
| 3.5 | 28% | 73% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 13% | 87% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#3
Bayer 04 Le…+17
Gap#20
FC St. Pauli
WR 91% 30 pts
WR 33% 8 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leve… | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 9 | 30 |
| FC St. Pauli | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 8 |
Bayer 04 Lever…
12.0%
| Jan 31 | Bayer 0… v Eintrac… | 1-3 |
| Jan 28 | Bayer 0… v Villarr… | 3-0 |
| Jan 24 | Bayer 0… v Werder … | 1-0 |
| Jan 20 | Bayer 0… v Olympia… | 2-0 |
| Jan 17 | Bayer 0… v 1899 Ho… | 1-0 |
| Jan 10 | Bayer 0… v VfB Stu… | 1-4 |
| Dec 20 | Bayer 0… v RasenBa… | 1-3 |
| Dec 13 | Bayer 0… v FC Koln | 2-0 |
| Dec 10 | Bayer 0… v Newcast… | 2-2 |
| Dec 06 | Bayer 0… v FC Augs… | 2-0 |
FC St. Pauli
4.0%
| Jan 31 | FC St. … v FC Augs… | 2-1 |
| Jan 27 | FC St. … v RasenBa… | 1-1 |
| Jan 23 | FC St. … v Hamburg… | 0-0 |
| Jan 17 | FC St. … v Borussi… | 3-2 |
| Jan 14 | FC St. … v VfL Wol… | 2-1 |
| Jan 04 | FC St. … v Werder … | 0-0 |
| Dec 21 | FC St. … v FSV Mai… | 0-0 |
| Dec 13 | FC St. … v FC Heid… | 2-1 |
| Dec 06 | FC St. … v FC Koln | 1-1 |
| Dec 02 | FC St. … v Borussi… | 1-2 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Sep 27, 2025 | FC St. Pauli | 1-2 | Bayer 04 Leve… |
| Apr 20, 2025 | FC St. Pauli | 1-1 | Bayer 04 Leve… |
| Dec 07, 2024 | Bayer 04 Leve… | 2-1 | FC St. Pauli |
| Dec 07, 2024 | Bayer 04 Leve… | 2-1 | FC St. Pauli |
Decision Breakdown
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)ODDS60+M70 (77.4%)TOP3vsBot (75.8%)TOP3_VS_REL (80.8%)GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HOME_FORT (73.3%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
81%
Standings
50%
Market
66%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Bayer 04 Leverkusen in strong form (3W in last 5)
FC St. Pauli struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.