Taça de Portugal · Feb 04, 2026 20:15
Moreirense
PWR 42
Fafe
PWR 54
PWR 54
1 - 1
FT
Moreirense
PWR 42
57%
23%
20%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Fafe Win
Score
2-2
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (23%)0-0 (18%)2-0 (15%)1-1 (10%)0-1 (8%)3-0 (6%)
WRONG 1-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
24%
Under 2.5
76%
76%
BTTS
No
No 25%
Over 3.5
26%
Team Comparison
45Attack49
60Defense42
Goals/G
1.31.4
Conc/G
1.11.7
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Fafe
DLWWW
STABLE
Moreirense
LDLLW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk27%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (27.3%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Fafevs
0.42
MoreirenseGoal Probability
Fafe
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4
3%
Moreirense
0
66%
1
28%
2
6%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (18%)1-0 (16%)3-0 (13%)0-0 (7%)4-0 (7%)2-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% | - |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 12% | 88% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#7
Fafe-2
Gap#5
Moreirense
WR 57% 14 pts
WR 33% 23 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fafe | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 14 |
| Moreirense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 30 | 23 |
Fafe
14.0%
| Jan 25 | Fafe v SC Braga | 2-2 |
| Jan 18 | Fafe v Guimara… | 1-0 |
| Jan 14 | Fafe v SC Braga | 2-1 |
| Jan 10 | Fafe v São Joã… | 0-4 |
| Jan 04 | Fafe v Varzim | 1-0 |
| Dec 27 | Fafe v Lusitan… | 0-1 |
| Dec 21 | Fafe v Amarante | 3-2 |
| Dec 14 | Fafe v Trofense | 1-2 |
| Dec 07 | Fafe v AD Marc… | 1-1 |
| Nov 29 | Fafe v Paredes | 2-1 |
Moreirense
6.0%
| Feb 01 | Moreire… v Sportin… | 2-0 |
| Feb 01 | Moreire… v Marítimo | 1-1 |
| Jan 31 | Moreire… v Académi… | 1-0 |
| Jan 30 | Moreire… v Guimara… | 1-0 |
| Jan 25 | Moreire… v Penafie… | 2-1 |
| Jan 25 | Moreire… v Farense | 2-1 |
| Jan 25 | Moreire… v Portimo… | 0-1 |
| Jan 24 | Moreire… v Santa C… | 1-0 |
| Jan 19 | Moreire… v FC Port… | 2-1 |
| Jan 19 | Moreire… v Sportin… | 1-2 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Oct 19, 2025 | Fafe | 1-0 | Moreirense |
| Oct 17, 2021 | Moreirense | 1-1 | Fafe |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
78%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (54%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Fafe in strong form (3W in last 5)
Moreirense struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.