Paulista - A4 · Mar 07, 2026 18:00
Comercial
PWR 35
Nacional AM
PWR 31
Comercial
PWR 35
2 - 0
FT
Nacional AM
PWR 31
41%
26%
33%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (42% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
42%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-1 (13%)1-0 (12%)0-1 (11%)0-0 (10%)2-1 (8%)2-0 (7%)
WRONG 2-0
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.44x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.85x
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
61%
BTTS
No 46%
Over 3.5
19%
Team Comparison
0Attack21
100Defense52
Goals/G
0.00.6
Conc/G
0.01.4
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Comercial
LLWLL
DOWN
Nacional AM
WLDDL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): Paulista
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Comercialvs
1.07
Nacional AMGoal Probability
Comercial
0
30%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4
3%
Nacional AM
0
34%
1
37%
2
20%
3
7%
4
2%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (14%)1-1 (13%)0-0 (11%)0-1 (10%)2-0 (10%)2-1 (9%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 89% | 11% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% | - |
| 3.5 | 19% | 82% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 8% | 93% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#19
Comercial-7
Gap#12
Nacional AM
WR 22% 7 pts
WR 18% 18 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comercial | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| Nacional AM | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 30 | 18 |
Comercial
4.0%
| Mar 04 | Comerci… v São Cae… | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Comerci… v EC Leme… | 0-1 |
| Feb 25 | Comerci… v Colorad… | 1-2 |
| Feb 21 | Comerci… v Barretos | 1-2 |
| Feb 14 | Comerci… v Grêmio … | 1-0 |
| Feb 11 | Comerci… v Taquari… | 0-1 |
| Feb 03 | Comerci… v Peneden… | 1-2 |
| Jan 31 | Comerci… v ECUS | 1-1 |
| Oct 26 | Comerci… v Corí-Sa… | 2-1 |
| Oct 23 | Comerci… v Corí-Sa… | 0-0 |
Nacional AM
8.0%
| Mar 06 | Naciona… v Amazonas | 3-0 |
| Mar 04 | Naciona… v Taquari… | 0-4 |
| Mar 01 | Naciona… v Toledo | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Naciona… v Princes… | 2-2 |
| Feb 28 | Naciona… v Tanabi | 2-0 |
| Feb 25 | Naciona… v EC Leme… | 0-1 |
| Feb 25 | Naciona… v Novoriz… | 4-0 |
| Feb 22 | Naciona… v Treze | 1-2 |
| Feb 21 | Naciona… v Joseense | 0-1 |
| Feb 20 | Naciona… v Amazonas | 0-1 |
Head-to-Head (1)
| Feb 02, 2022 | Nacional AM | 0-3 | Comercial |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
50%
Market
48%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Comercial struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.