Copa Santa Catarina · Nov 23, 2025 19:00
Figueirense
PWR 58
Joinville
PWR 44
Figueirense
PWR 58
2 - 1
FT
Joinville
PWR 44
53%
23%
24%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
MASTER: Figueirense to win (76% confidence)
Score
2-1
Confidence
76%
TierMASTER
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (14%)1-0 (12%)3-0 (11%)2-1 (9%)1-1 (7%)3-1 (7%)
WRONG 2-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
BTTS
No 42%
Over 3.5
42%
Team Comparison
63Attack46
61Defense52
Goals/G
1.81.3
Conc/G
1.11.4
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Figueirense
WLWWL
STABLE
Joinville
LLWDD
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateH2H: 5/7 draws (71%) = VERY HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw risk
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.43
Figueirensevs
0.62
JoinvilleGoal Probability
Figueirense
0
9%
1
21%
2
26%
3
21%
4
13%
Joinville
0
54%
1
33%
2
10%
3
2%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (10%)2-1 (10%)1-0 (9%)3-0 (8%)1-1 (8%)3-1 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 4% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 65% | 36% | - |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% | - |
| 4.5 | 24% | 76% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 12% | 88% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Figueirense+2
Gap#3
Joinville
WR 47% 32 pts
WR 32% 24 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figueirense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 21 | 32 |
| Joinville | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 26 | 24 |
Figueirense
12.0%
| Nov 16 | Figueir… v Joinvil… | 1-4 |
| Nov 09 | Figueir… v MarcÃli… | 2-1 |
| Nov 02 | Figueir… v MarcÃli… | 3-0 |
| Oct 26 | Figueir… v Chapeco… | 2-0 |
| Oct 22 | Figueir… v Chapeco… | 2-1 |
| Oct 12 | Figueir… v Avaà | 1-1 |
| Oct 04 | Figueir… v MarcÃli… | 2-2 |
| Oct 01 | Figueir… v Barra | 1-4 |
| Sep 21 | Figueir… v GuaranÃ… | 1-4 |
| Sep 21 | Figueir… v Barra | 2-1 |
Joinville
8.0%
| Nov 16 | Joinvil… v Figueir… | 1-4 |
| Nov 09 | Joinvil… v Blumenau | 1-0 |
| Nov 02 | Joinvil… v Blumenau | 1-0 |
| Oct 27 | Joinvil… v Criciúma | 2-2 |
| Oct 21 | Joinvil… v Criciúma | 0-0 |
| Oct 13 | Joinvil… v Blumenau | 2-0 |
| Oct 07 | Joinvil… v Nação | 0-1 |
| Oct 01 | Joinvil… v Carlos … | 2-0 |
| Sep 21 | Joinvil… v Carlos … | 4-2 |
| Sep 14 | Joinvil… v Nação | 0-0 |
Head-to-Head (7)
| Nov 16, 2025 | Joinville | 1-4 | Figueirense |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Joinville | 0-0 | Figueirense |
| Oct 05, 2024 | Joinville | 0-0 | Figueirense |
| Jan 24, 2024 | Figueirense | 1-1 | Joinville |
| Aug 31, 2023 | Joinville | 1-3 | Figueirense |
| Jan 21, 2023 | Figueirense | 1-1 | Joinville |
| Jan 23, 2022 | Figueirense | 0-0 | Joinville |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
91%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (29%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Figueirense in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.