Copa Santa Catarina · Nov 16, 2025 19:00
Joinville
PWR 44
Figueirense
PWR 58
Joinville
PWR 44
1 - 4
FT
Figueirense
PWR 58
47%
25%
28%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Joinville to win (61% confidence)
Score
2-1
Confidence
61%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (18%)2-0 (18%)3-0 (11%)0-0 (10%)1-1 (8%)2-1 (8%)
WRONG 1-4
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
BTTS
No
No 30%
Over 3.5
34%
Team Comparison
46Attack63
52Defense61
Goals/G
1.31.8
Conc/G
1.41.1
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Joinville
LWDDW
STABLE
Figueirense
LWWLD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk32%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateH2H: 5/6 draws (83%) = VERY HIGH riskHome team drew 2/5 recent games
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.91
Joinvillevs
0.43
FigueirenseGoal Probability
Joinville
0
15%
1
28%
2
27%
3
17%
4
8%
Figueirense
0
65%
1
28%
2
6%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (11%)1-2 (9%)0-1 (9%)0-2 (7%)2-1 (7%)1-0 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 5% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 80% | 21% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% | - |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 18% | 82% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 8% | 92% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
League Position
#3
Joinville-2
Gap#1
Figueirense
WR 32% 24 pts
WR 47% 32 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joinville | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 26 | 24 |
| Figueirense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 21 | 32 |
Joinville
12.0%
| Nov 09 | Joinvil… v Blumenau | 1-0 |
| Nov 02 | Joinvil… v Blumenau | 1-0 |
| Oct 27 | Joinvil… v Criciúma | 2-2 |
| Oct 21 | Joinvil… v Criciúma | 0-0 |
| Oct 13 | Joinvil… v Blumenau | 2-0 |
| Oct 07 | Joinvil… v Nação | 0-1 |
| Oct 01 | Joinvil… v Carlos … | 2-0 |
| Sep 21 | Joinvil… v Carlos … | 4-2 |
| Sep 14 | Joinvil… v Nação | 0-0 |
| Sep 07 | Joinvil… v Blumenau | 2-0 |
Figueirense
10.0%
| Nov 09 | Figueir… v MarcÃli… | 2-1 |
| Nov 02 | Figueir… v MarcÃli… | 3-0 |
| Oct 26 | Figueir… v Chapeco… | 2-0 |
| Oct 22 | Figueir… v Chapeco… | 2-1 |
| Oct 12 | Figueir… v Avaà | 1-1 |
| Oct 04 | Figueir… v MarcÃli… | 2-2 |
| Oct 01 | Figueir… v Barra | 1-4 |
| Sep 21 | Figueir… v GuaranÃ… | 1-4 |
| Sep 21 | Figueir… v Barra | 2-1 |
| Sep 15 | Figueir… v MarcÃli… | 1-2 |
Head-to-Head (6)
| Jan 11, 2025 | Joinville | 0-0 | Figueirense |
| Oct 05, 2024 | Joinville | 0-0 | Figueirense |
| Jan 24, 2024 | Figueirense | 1-1 | Joinville |
| Aug 31, 2023 | Joinville | 1-3 | Figueirense |
| Jan 21, 2023 | Figueirense | 1-1 | Joinville |
| Jan 23, 2022 | Figueirense | 0-0 | Joinville |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
86%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (31%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.