Challenge League · Mar 06, 2026 19:15
Étoile Carouge
PWR 35
FC Aarau
PWR 35
Étoile Carouge
PWR 35
0 - 3
FT
FC Aarau
PWR 35
47%
25%
28%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Étoile Carouge Win
Score
1-4
Confidence
37%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
3-1 (8%)2-1 (7%)3-2 (5%)3-0 (5%)2-2 (5%)2-0 (5%)
WRONG 0-3
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
DC 1X
Home/Draw
2.13x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.4x
Over 2.5
73%
73%
Under 2.5
27%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 73%
Over 3.5
78%
78%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Étoile Carouge
WDLDW
STABLE
FC Aarau
WDWLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk23%
Accuracy38%
AWAY_LEAKING
Full data available (Tier 1)Home team draws 31% at home = very high riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesElevated draw risk (22.8%) - consider AHBelow minimum tier (need PREMIUM+, got SKIP/1 rules)
Expected Goals (xG)
3.27
Étoile Carougevs
1.44
FC AarauGoal Probability
Étoile Caro…
0
4%
1
12%
2
20%
3
22%
4
18%
FC Aarau
0
24%
1
34%
2
25%
3
12%
4
4%
CORRECT SCORES
2-2 (6%)3-2 (6%)2-3 (5%)2-1 (5%)3-3 (5%)3-1 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 100% | 1% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 97% | 3% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 90% | 10% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 78% | 22% | OVER |
| 4.5 | 61% | 39% | - |
| 5.5 | 44% | 56% | - |
| 6.5 | 28% | 72% | UNDER |
League Position
#9
Étoile Caro…-7
Gap#2
FC Aarau
WR 23% 22 pts
WR 69% 56 pts
Étoile Carouge
12.0%
| Feb 28 | Étoile … v Stade L… | 0-1 |
| Feb 20 | Étoile … v Yverdon… | 2-2 |
| Feb 13 | Étoile … v Neuchât… | 1-3 |
| Feb 06 | Étoile … v FC Vaduz | 3-3 |
| Jan 30 | Étoile … v Rappers… | 2-1 |
| Jan 23 | Étoile … v Stade N… | 2-2 |
| Jan 16 | Étoile … v Chênois | 3-1 |
| Dec 19 | Étoile … v Stade L… | 1-2 |
| Dec 12 | Étoile … v FC Aarau | 2-1 |
| Dec 05 | Étoile … v FC WIL … | 0-0 |
FC Aarau
10.0%
| Feb 27 | FC Aarau v Rappers… | 5-3 |
| Feb 20 | FC Aarau v Stade N… | 1-1 |
| Feb 20 | FC Aarau v Luzern … | 2-3 |
| Feb 14 | FC Aarau v Servett… | 0-3 |
| Feb 13 | FC Aarau v Stade L… | 4-2 |
| Feb 07 | FC Aarau v FC WIL … | 2-2 |
| Feb 07 | FC Aarau v Young B… | 3-0 |
| Jan 30 | FC Aarau v Yverdon… | 1-2 |
| Jan 24 | FC Aarau v Bellinz… | 1-0 |
| Jan 10 | FC Aarau v FK Crve… | 4-1 |
Head-to-Head (7)
| Dec 12, 2025 | FC Aarau | 2-1 | Étoile Carouge |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Étoile Carouge | 1-3 | FC Aarau |
| May 16, 2025 | Étoile Carouge | 1-3 | FC Aarau |
| Mar 28, 2025 | FC Aarau | 2-2 | Étoile Carouge |
| Dec 05, 2024 | FC Aarau | 0-1 | Étoile Carouge |
| Nov 01, 2024 | Étoile Carouge | 2-1 | FC Aarau |
| Aug 24, 2024 | FC Aarau | 1-0 | Étoile Carouge |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
91%
Standings
36%
Market
35%
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.