La Liga · Mar 08, 2026 20:00
Valencia
PWR 29
Alavés
PWR 32
Valencia
PWR 29
3 - 2
FT
Alavés
PWR 32
53%
23%
24%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Valencia Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (16%)2-0 (14%)1-1 (10%)2-1 (9%)3-0 (9%)0-0 (9%)
CORRECT 3-2
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
BTTS
No 39%
Over 3.5
42%
Team Comparison
31Attack27
52Defense63
Goals/G
1.00.9
Conc/G
1.61.2
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Valencia
WLWLL
STABLE
Alavés
LDDLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk27%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Home team draws 36% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw rateH2H: 3/10 draws (30%) = HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (26.5%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.82
Valenciavs
0.63
AlavésGoal Probability
Valencia
0
16%
1
30%
2
27%
3
16%
4
7%
Alavés
0
53%
1
34%
2
11%
3
2%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
2-1 (10%)2-0 (9%)1-1 (9%)1-0 (8%)3-1 (7%)3-0 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 4% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% | - |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% | - |
| 4.5 | 24% | 76% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 12% | 88% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
League Position
#12
Valencia+4
Gap#16
Alavés
WR 43% 32 pts
WR 14% 27 pts
Valencia
8.0%
| Mar 01 | Valencia v Osasuna | 1-0 |
| Feb 22 | Valencia v Villarr… | 2-1 |
| Feb 15 | Valencia v Levante | 0-2 |
| Feb 08 | Valencia v Real Ma… | 0-2 |
| Feb 04 | Valencia v Athleti… | 1-2 |
| Feb 01 | Valencia v Real Be… | 2-1 |
| Jan 24 | Valencia v Espanyol | 3-2 |
| Jan 18 | Valencia v Getafe | 0-1 |
| Jan 15 | Valencia v Burgos | 0-2 |
| Jan 10 | Valencia v Elche | 1-1 |
Alavés
4.0%
| Feb 27 | Alavés v Levante | 2-0 |
| Feb 23 | Alavés v Girona | 2-2 |
| Feb 14 | Alavés v Sevilla | 1-1 |
| Feb 08 | Alavés v Getafe | 0-2 |
| Feb 04 | Alavés v Real So… | 2-3 |
| Jan 30 | Alavés v Espanyol | 1-2 |
| Jan 25 | Alavés v Real Be… | 2-1 |
| Jan 18 | Alavés v Atlétic… | 1-0 |
| Jan 14 | Alavés v Rayo Va… | 2-0 |
| Jan 10 | Alavés v Villarr… | 3-1 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Oct 20, 2025 | Alavés | 0-0 | Valencia |
| May 14, 2025 | Alavés | 1-0 | Valencia |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Alavés | 0-2 | Valencia |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Valencia | 2-2 | Alavés |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Valencia | 2-2 | Alavés |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Valencia | 1-0 | Alavés |
| Jul 24, 2024 | Valencia | 0-1 | Alavés |
| May 05, 2024 | Valencia | 0-1 | Alavés |
| May 05, 2024 | Valencia | 0-1 | Alavés |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Alavés | 1-0 | Valencia |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
83%
Standings
65%
Market
50%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Valencia struggling (3L in last 5)
Alavés struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.