Primeira Liga · Mar 09, 2026 20:15
Tondela
PWR 35
Rio Ave FC
PWR 35
Tondela
PWR 35
0 - 1
FT
Rio Ave FC
PWR 35
57%
23%
20%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Tondela Win
Score
1-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (17%)2-0 (15%)1-0 (9%)3-1 (5%)2-1 (4%)0-0 (3%)
WRONG 0-1
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.42x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.92x
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
BTTS
No
No 23%
Over 3.5
21%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Tondela
DWDDD
STABLE
Rio Ave FC
DLLLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk34%
Accuracy38%
AWAY_LEAKING
Full data available (Tier 1)Home team draws 38% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw rateH2H: 1/4 draws (25%) = HIGH riskHome team drew 4/5 recent gamesCombined DR 77% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (34.4%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
3.30
Tondelavs
0.27
Rio Ave FCGoal Probability
Tondela
0
4%
1
12%
2
20%
3
22%
4
18%
Rio Ave FC
0
76%
1
21%
2
3%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (17%)2-0 (16%)3-0 (10%)0-0 (9%)1-1 (9%)2-1 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91% | 9% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% | - |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#17
Tondela-4
Gap#13
Rio Ave FC
WR 8% 19 pts
WR 23% 24 pts
Tondela
12.0%
| Mar 01 | Tondela v Santa Cā¦ | 2-2 |
| Feb 20 | Tondela v Estrelaā¦ | 0-2 |
| Feb 13 | Tondela v Alverca | 1-1 |
| Feb 07 | Tondela v Estoril | 2-2 |
| Feb 01 | Tondela v Benfica | 0-0 |
| Jan 25 | Tondela v Famalicā¦ | 3-0 |
| Jan 18 | Tondela v SC Braga | 0-1 |
| Jan 11 | Tondela v Moreireā¦ | 1-0 |
| Jan 03 | Tondela v Arouca | 3-1 |
| Dec 21 | Tondela v Casa Piā¦ | 1-2 |
Rio Ave FC
2.0%
| Mar 01 | Rio Aveā¦ v Famalicā¦ | 0-0 |
| Feb 22 | Rio Aveā¦ v FC Porto | 1-0 |
| Feb 16 | Rio Aveā¦ v Moreireā¦ | 1-2 |
| Feb 08 | Rio Aveā¦ v SC Braga | 3-0 |
| Jan 31 | Rio Aveā¦ v Arouca | 0-3 |
| Jan 25 | Rio Aveā¦ v Nacional | 4-0 |
| Jan 17 | Rio Aveā¦ v Benfica | 0-2 |
| Jan 04 | Rio Aveā¦ v Casa Piā¦ | 3-1 |
| Dec 28 | Rio Aveā¦ v Sportinā¦ | 4-0 |
| Dec 20 | Rio Aveā¦ v GIL Vicā¦ | 2-2 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Oct 05, 2025 | Rio Ave FC | 3-0 | Tondela |
| Jan 12, 2022 | Rio Ave FC | 0-1 | Tondela |
| Feb 09, 2021 | Rio Ave FC | 2-1 | Tondela |
| Sep 20, 2020 | Tondela | 1-1 | Rio Ave FC |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
42%
Market
50%
High draw risk (48%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Rio Ave FC struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.