Shield Cup · Jun 01, 2025 12:00
Nairobi United
PWR 43
PWR 43
1 - 1
FT
Mara Sugar
PWR 31
PWR 31
51%
24%
25%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Nairobi United Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (16%)2-0 (16%)3-0 (10%)1-1 (9%)0-0 (9%)2-1 (8%)
WRONG 1-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
BTTS
No 35%
Over 3.5
25%
Team Comparison
35Attack23
72Defense65
Goals/G
1.00.7
Conc/G
0.81.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Nairobi United
WDDDW
STABLE
Mara Sugar
DWDLD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateAway team drew 3/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw riskHome team drew 3/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (30.5%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.93
Nairobi Unitedvs
0.53
Mara SugarGoal Probability
Nairobi Uniā¦
0
15%
1
28%
2
27%
3
17%
4
8%
Mara Sugar
0
59%
1
31%
2
8%
3
2%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (13%)1-1 (12%)2-0 (11%)2-1 (10%)0-0 (8%)0-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 92% | 8% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% | - |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 11% | 89% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 4% | 96% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#8
Nairobi Uniā¦+3
Gap#11
Mara Sugar
WR 20% 6 pts
WR 0% 2 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi United | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Mara Sugar | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Nairobi United
14.0%
| May 01 | Nairobiā¦ v Homeboyz | 2-0 |
| Apr 12 | Nairobiā¦ v KCB | 0-0 |
| Mar 16 | Nairobiā¦ v APS Bomā¦ | 0-0 |
| Mar 08 | Nairobiā¦ v Tusker | 1-1 |
| Nov 17 | Nairobiā¦ v APS Bomā¦ | 1-0 |
| Jun 07 | Nairobiā¦ v Mathareā¦ | 2-3 |
| Jun 02 | Nairobiā¦ v Mara Suā¦ | 1-0 |
| Dec 16 | Nairobiā¦ v Mara Suā¦ | 0-2 |
| Nov 15 | Nairobiā¦ v Mathareā¦ | 2-0 |
Mara Sugar
10.0%
| May 25 | Mara Suā¦ v Police | 1-1 |
| May 18 | Mara Suā¦ v Shabana | 0-1 |
| May 04 | Mara Suā¦ v Ulinzi ā¦ | 1-1 |
| Apr 27 | Mara Suā¦ v Gor Mahā¦ | 4-0 |
| Apr 06 | Mara Suā¦ v Tusker | 1-1 |
| Mar 28 | Mara Suā¦ v Mathareā¦ | 2-1 |
| Mar 16 | Mara Suā¦ v Bidco Uā¦ | 0-0 |
| Mar 01 | Mara Suā¦ v Sofapaka | 1-1 |
| Feb 19 | Mara Suā¦ v Posta Rā¦ | 1-1 |
| Feb 01 | Mara Suā¦ v Homeboyz | 2-0 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Jun 02, 2024 | Mara Sugar | 1-0 | Nairobi United |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Nairobi United | 0-2 | Mara Sugar |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
85%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (45%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.