Primeira Liga · Mar 14, 2026 20:30
Arouca
PWR 35
Benfica
PWR 35
Arouca
PWR 35
2-3
predicted
Benfica
PWR 35
43%
25%
32%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Benfica Win
Score
2-3
Confidence
37%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-1 (10%)2-0 (9%)1-1 (9%)1-0 (8%)3-1 (7%)3-0 (7%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
62%
62%
Under 2.5
38%
BTTS
Yes 59%
Over 3.5
52%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Arouca
LLWLW
DOWN
Benfica
DWLWL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeAWAY
Draw Risk24%
Accuracy56%
AWAY_FORM_MOMENTUMAWAY_POINTS_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)Elevated draw risk (23.7%) - consider AHElite league - reduced threshold
Away prediction needs 76%+ confidence
Expected Goals (xG)
2.27
Aroucavs
1.08
BenficaGoal Probability
Arouca
0
10%
1
24%
2
27%
3
20%
4
11%
Benfica
0
34%
1
37%
2
20%
3
7%
4
2%
CORRECT SCORES
1-2 (9%)1-1 (8%)2-2 (7%)1-3 (7%)2-1 (6%)0-2 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% | - |
| 4.5 | 33% | 67% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 18% | 82% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
League Position
#11
Arouca-8
Gap#3
Benfica
WR 33% 26 pts
WR 75% 59 pts
Arouca
8.0%
| Mar 06 | Arouca v Famalic… | 1-0 |
| Feb 27 | Arouca v FC Porto | 3-1 |
| Feb 21 | Arouca v Nacional | 3-0 |
| Feb 14 | Arouca v Casa Pi… | 3-2 |
| Feb 07 | Arouca v Guimara… | 3-2 |
| Jan 31 | Arouca v Rio Ave… | 0-3 |
| Jan 24 | Arouca v Sportin… | 1-2 |
| Jan 17 | Arouca v AVS | 0-1 |
| Jan 03 | Arouca v Tondela | 3-1 |
| Dec 28 | Arouca v GIL Vic… | 2-2 |
Benfica
10.0%
| Mar 08 | Benfica v FC Porto | 2-2 |
| Mar 02 | Benfica v GIL Vic… | 1-2 |
| Feb 25 | Benfica v Real Ma… | 2-1 |
| Feb 21 | Benfica v AVS | 3-0 |
| Feb 17 | Benfica v Real Ma… | 0-1 |
| Feb 13 | Benfica v Santa C… | 1-2 |
| Feb 08 | Benfica v Alverca | 2-1 |
| Feb 01 | Benfica v Tondela | 0-0 |
| Jan 28 | Benfica v Real Ma… | 4-2 |
| Jan 25 | Benfica v Estrela… | 4-0 |
Head-to-Head (6)
| Oct 25, 2025 | Benfica | 5-0 | Arouca |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Benfica | 2-2 | Arouca |
| Dec 01, 2024 | Arouca | 0-2 | Benfica |
| May 12, 2024 | Benfica | 5-0 | Arouca |
| May 12, 2024 | Benfica | 5-0 | Arouca |
| Jan 06, 2024 | Arouca | 0-3 | Benfica |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
83%
Standings
34%
Market
50%
High draw risk (32%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Arouca struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.