Serie A · Mar 14, 2026 17:00
Napoli
PWR 40
Lecce
PWR 27
Napoli
PWR 40
3-1
predicted
Lecce
PWR 27
43%
25%
32%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Napoli Win
Score
3-1
Confidence
68%
TierGOLD
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (15%)1-0 (14%)3-0 (10%)2-1 (9%)1-1 (9%)0-0 (7%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS
No 40%
Over 3.5
29%
Team Comparison
43Attack17
73Defense61
Goals/G
1.40.6
Conc/G
0.91.3
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Napoli
WWLDD
STABLE
Lecce
WLLWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk25%
Accuracy73%
POSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAPTABLE_EXTREMES
Standings data available (Tier 2)Home team draws 31% at home = very high riskH2H: 2/5 draws (40%) = VERY HIGH riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (25.0%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.07
Napolivs
0.62
LecceGoal Probability
Napoli
0
13%
1
26%
2
27%
3
19%
4
10%
Lecce
0
54%
1
33%
2
10%
3
2%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (12%)1-1 (11%)2-0 (10%)2-1 (10%)0-0 (7%)0-1 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 76% | 25% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% | - |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 14% | 86% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#3
Napoli+13
Gap#16
Lecce
WR 69% 56 pts
WR 23% 27 pts
Napoli
12.0%
| Mar 06 | Napoli v Torino | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Napoli v Verona | 1-2 |
| Feb 22 | Napoli v Atalanta | 2-1 |
| Feb 15 | Napoli v AS Roma | 2-2 |
| Feb 10 | Napoli v Como | 1-1 |
| Feb 07 | Napoli v Genoa | 2-3 |
| Jan 31 | Napoli v Fiorent… | 2-1 |
| Jan 28 | Napoli v Chelsea | 2-3 |
| Jan 25 | Napoli v Juventus | 3-0 |
| Jan 20 | Napoli v FC Cope… | 1-1 |
Lecce
12.0%
| Mar 08 | Lecce v Cremone… | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Lecce v Como | 3-1 |
| Feb 21 | Lecce v Inter M… | 0-2 |
| Feb 16 | Lecce v Cagliari | 0-2 |
| Feb 08 | Lecce v Udinese | 2-1 |
| Feb 01 | Lecce v Torino | 1-0 |
| Jan 24 | Lecce v Lazio | 0-0 |
| Jan 18 | Lecce v AC Milan | 1-0 |
| Jan 14 | Lecce v Inter M… | 1-0 |
| Jan 11 | Lecce v Parma | 1-2 |
Head-to-Head (5)
| Oct 28, 2025 | Lecce | 0-1 | Napoli |
| May 03, 2025 | Lecce | 0-1 | Napoli |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Napoli | 1-0 | Lecce |
| May 26, 2024 | Napoli | 0-0 | Lecce |
| May 26, 2024 | Napoli | 0-0 | Lecce |
Decision Breakdown
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)TOP3vsBot (75.8%)M85+S60 (75.3%)GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
86%
Standings
90%
Market
50%
High draw risk (32%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Lecce in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.