Northern NSW NPL · Mar 07, 2026 06:00
Maitland
PWR 35
Belmont Swansea
PWR 35
PWR 35
3 - 4
FT
Maitland
PWR 35
61%
22%
17%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-3 (6%)1-2 (6%)2-3 (6%)2-2 (6%)1-1 (4%)3-3 (4%)
WRONG 3-4
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
2.04x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.48x
Over 2.5
76%
76%
Under 2.5
24%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 81%
Over 3.5
93%
93%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Belmont Swansea
WWDLW
STABLE
Maitland
LDLDL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk29%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw risk
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.84
Belmont Swanseavs
3.24
MaitlandGoal Probability
Belmont Swa…
0
16%
1
29%
2
27%
3
17%
4
8%
Maitland
0
4%
1
13%
2
21%
3
22%
4
18%
CORRECT SCORES
3-3 (5%)4-3 (4%)3-4 (4%)3-2 (4%)2-3 (4%)4-2 (4%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 100% | 0% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 97% | 3% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 93% | 8% | OVER |
| 4.5 | 84% | 16% | OVER |
| 5.5 | 72% | 28% | OVER |
| 6.5 | 57% | 43% | - |
League Position
#4
Belmont Swa…+4
Gap#8
Maitland
WR 50% 6 pts
WR 50% 4 pts
Belmont Swansea
14.0%
| Mar 01 | Belmont… v Cooks H… | 2-1 |
| Feb 21 | Belmont… v Valenti… | 1-2 |
| Aug 13 | Belmont… v Maitland | 2-2 |
| Aug 10 | Belmont… v Hamilto… | 2-3 |
| Jul 27 | Belmont… v Adamsto… | 0-2 |
| Jul 16 | Belmont… v Maitland | 1-3 |
| Jul 05 | Belmont… v Weston … | 4-2 |
| Jun 14 | Belmont… v Cooks H… | 1-4 |
| May 31 | Belmont… v Valenti… | 2-1 |
| Apr 05 | Belmont… v Weston … | 0-3 |
Maitland
4.0%
| Feb 28 | Maitland v Weston … | 1-2 |
| Feb 22 | Maitland v Cooks H… | 2-2 |
| Aug 17 | Maitland v Lambton… | 3-1 |
| Aug 13 | Maitland v Belmont… | 2-2 |
| Aug 10 | Maitland v Lambton… | 4-2 |
| Aug 06 | Maitland v Cooks H… | 3-0 |
| Jul 27 | Maitland v Valenti… | 1-6 |
| Jul 16 | Maitland v Belmont… | 1-3 |
| Jul 12 | Maitland v Charles… | 3-1 |
| Jun 14 | Maitland v Weston … | 1-2 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Aug 13, 2025 | Maitland | 2-2 | Belmont Swans… |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Belmont Swans… | 1-3 | Maitland |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
35%
Standings
56%
Market
35%
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Belmont Swansea in strong form (3W in last 5)
Maitland struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.