Serie A · Mar 11, 2026 23:00
Bahia
PWR 35
Vitoria
PWR 35
Bahia
PWR 35
1 - 1
FT
Vitoria
PWR 35
49%
24%
27%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
ELITE: Bahia to win (95% confidence)
Score
1-0
Confidence
95%
TierELITE
LIKELY SCORES
2-1 (9%)3-1 (8%)2-0 (7%)1-1 (6%)3-0 (6%)2-2 (6%)
WRONG 1-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
81%
Home/Draw
1.3x
DC X2
Away/Draw
2.31x
Over 2.5
70%
70%
Under 2.5
30%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 68%
Over 3.5
35%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Bahia
WWWWL
UP
Vitoria
WLWDW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateHome team draws 100% at home = very high riskH2H: 4/10 draws (40%) = VERY HIGH riskCombined DR 125% = 50.7% draw rateElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.3
Expected Goals (xG)
2.74
Bahiavs
1.28
VitoriaGoal Probability
Bahia
0
7%
1
18%
2
24%
3
22%
4
15%
Vitoria
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4
3%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (11%)1-2 (9%)0-1 (8%)2-1 (8%)1-0 (7%)0-2 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 5% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% | - |
| 3.5 | 36% | 65% | - |
| 4.5 | 19% | 81% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 9% | 92% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
League Position
#3
Bahia+12
Gap#15
Vitoria
WR 0% 8 pts
WR 0% 4 pts
Bahia
16.0%
| Mar 07 | Bahia v Vitoria | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Bahia v Figueir… | 4-2 |
| Feb 25 | Bahia v O'Higgi… | 2-1 |
| Feb 21 | Bahia v Atlétic… | 2-4 |
| Feb 18 | Bahia v O'Higgi… | 1-0 |
| Feb 12 | Bahia v Vasco D… | 0-1 |
| Feb 08 | Bahia v Figueir… | 1-1 |
| Feb 05 | Bahia v Flumine… | 1-1 |
| Feb 01 | Bahia v Porto BA | 3-1 |
| Jan 28 | Bahia v Corinth… | 1-2 |
Vitoria
14.0%
| Mar 08 | Vitoria v Porto V… | 0-4 |
| Mar 07 | Vitoria v Bahia | 2-1 |
| Mar 01 | Vitoria v Fortale… | 4-1 |
| Feb 23 | Vitoria v Fortale… | 1-1 |
| Feb 22 | Vitoria v GalĂcia | 3-0 |
| Feb 18 | Vitoria v Bahia d… | 1-0 |
| Feb 12 | Vitoria v Serra T… | 1-2 |
| Feb 11 | Vitoria v Flamengo | 1-2 |
| Feb 07 | Vitoria v Rio Bra… | 3-0 |
| Feb 07 | Vitoria v Jequié | 2-2 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Mar 07, 2026 | Bahia | 2-1 | Vitoria |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Vitoria | 0-1 | Bahia |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Vitoria | 2-1 | Bahia |
| May 18, 2025 | Bahia | 2-1 | Vitoria |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Vitoria | 1-1 | Bahia |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Bahia | 2-0 | Vitoria |
| Feb 01, 2025 | Bahia | 0-0 | Vitoria |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Bahia | 2-0 | Vitoria |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Vitoria | 2-2 | Bahia |
| Apr 07, 2024 | Bahia | 1-1 | Vitoria |
Decision Breakdown
TOP3vsBot (75.8%)M85+S60 (75.3%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
86%
Standings
68%
Market
59%
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Bahia in strong form (4W in last 5)
Vitoria in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.