Primera C · Mar 14, 2026 21:00
El Porvenir
PWR 36
Mercedes
PWR 43
El Porvenir
PWR 36
1-1
predicted
Mercedes
PWR 43
41%
26%
33%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (20%)0-0 (17%)1-1 (12%)2-0 (12%)0-1 (10%)2-1 (7%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
27%
Under 2.5
73%
73%
BTTS
No
No 32%
Over 3.5
2%
Team Comparison
29Attack31
56Defense64
Goals/G
0.80.9
Conc/G
1.21.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
El Porvenir
DDLDW
STABLE
Mercedes
WWLDD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk29%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 3/5 recent games
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.0
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
El Porvenirvs
0.61
MercedesGoal Probability
El Porvenir
0
30%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4
3%
Mercedes
0
54%
1
33%
2
10%
3
2%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (38%)1-0 (22%)0-1 (15%)1-1 (9%)2-0 (6%)0-2 (3%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 62% | 38% | - |
| 1.5 | 25% | 75% | UNDER |
| 2.5 | 8% | 93% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#19
El Porvenir-4
Gap#15
Mercedes
WR 22% 43 pts
WR 33% 52 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Porvenir | 45 | 10 | 13 | 22 | 37 | 56 | 43 |
| Mercedes | 42 | 14 | 10 | 18 | 37 | 43 | 52 |
El Porvenir
10.0%
| Mar 09 | El Porv… v Leones … | 0-0 |
| Mar 01 | El Porv… v General… | 1-1 |
| Oct 03 | El Porv… v Lujan | 1-0 |
| Sep 27 | El Porv… v Lujan | 1-1 |
| Sep 16 | El Porv… v Puerto … | 1-2 |
| Sep 05 | El Porv… v Lujan | 2-1 |
| Aug 29 | El Porv… v Berazat… | 0-0 |
| Aug 24 | El Porv… v Ituzain… | 1-1 |
| Aug 18 | El Porv… v Deporti… | 0-2 |
| Aug 10 | El Porv… v Claypole | 0-0 |
Mercedes
12.0%
| Mar 01 | Mercedes v Centro … | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Mercedes v JJ Urqu… | 0-2 |
| Nov 22 | Mercedes v Deporti… | 2-1 |
| Nov 14 | Mercedes v Deporti… | 0-0 |
| Oct 19 | Mercedes v Atlétic… | 1-1 |
| Oct 13 | Mercedes v Atlétic… | 1-2 |
| Oct 03 | Mercedes v Deporti… | 2-0 |
| Sep 26 | Mercedes v Deporti… | 0-0 |
| Sep 16 | Mercedes v Leandro… | 0-1 |
| Aug 30 | Mercedes v Tallere… | 2-0 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Jun 27, 2025 | Mercedes | 0-0 | El Porvenir |
| Mar 18, 2025 | El Porvenir | 2-1 | Mercedes |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
68%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.