Copa por MĂ©xico · Dec 27, 2022 01:00
Toluca
PWR 49
Necaxa
PWR 31
Toluca
PWR 49
1 - 0
FT
Necaxa
PWR 31
63%
21%
16%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Toluca Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (12%)3-0 (10%)1-0 (9%)2-1 (9%)3-1 (8%)1-1 (7%)
CORRECT 1-0
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
BTTS
No 48%
Over 3.5
41%
Team Comparison
35Attack35
77Defense53
Goals/G
1.01.0
Conc/G
0.71.3
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Toluca
DDWWW
STABLE
Necaxa
DDLLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk30%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)H2H: 1/3 draws (33%) = HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (29.8%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.57
Tolucavs
0.73
NecaxaGoal Probability
Toluca
0
8%
1
20%
2
25%
3
22%
4
14%
Necaxa
0
48%
1
35%
2
13%
3
3%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (14%)3-0 (12%)1-0 (10%)2-1 (8%)4-0 (8%)3-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 4% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% | - |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% | - |
| 4.5 | 23% | 77% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 11% | 89% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Toluca+5
Gap#6
Necaxa
WR 33% 5 pts
WR 0% 2 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Necaxa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Toluca
16.0%
| Dec 23 | Toluca v Cruz Az… | 1-1 |
| Dec 14 | Toluca v U.N.A.M… | 1-1 |
| Oct 17 | Toluca v Santos … | 1-2 |
| Oct 14 | Toluca v Santos … | 4-3 |
| Oct 09 | Toluca v FC Juar… | 3-0 |
| Sep 11 | Toluca v U.N.A.M… | 2-2 |
| Sep 04 | Toluca v Guadala… | 0-0 |
| Aug 18 | Toluca v Monterr… | 1-1 |
| Aug 14 | Toluca v Cruz Az… | 2-3 |
| Aug 03 | Toluca v Puebla | 1-1 |
Necaxa
4.0%
| Dec 21 | Necaxa v U.N.A.M… | 0-0 |
| Dec 16 | Necaxa v Club Am… | 3-3 |
| Oct 02 | Necaxa v Atlas | 1-0 |
| Sep 11 | Necaxa v Club Am… | 1-2 |
| Sep 07 | Necaxa v Santos … | 3-1 |
| Sep 03 | Necaxa v LeĂłn FC | 3-2 |
| Aug 13 | Necaxa v Monterr… | 1-2 |
| Aug 07 | Necaxa v Atletic… | 1-2 |
| Jul 28 | Necaxa v Pachuca | 2-0 |
| Jul 17 | Necaxa v U.N.A.M… | 1-0 |
Head-to-Head (3)
| Jul 02, 2022 | Necaxa | 1-3 | Toluca |
| Mar 05, 2022 | Necaxa | 0-1 | Toluca |
| Oct 21, 2021 | Toluca | 1-1 | Necaxa |
Decision Breakdown
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
91%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (27%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Toluca in strong form (3W in last 5)
Necaxa struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.