Primera División - Clausura · Nov 30, 2025 19:30
Club Nacional
PWR 61
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 60
Club Nacional
PWR 61
1 - 0
FT
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 60
45%
25%
30%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Club Nacional to win (61% confidence)
Score
2-1
Confidence
61%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (13%)3-0 (13%)1-0 (9%)2-1 (7%)3-1 (7%)1-1 (5%)
WRONG 1-0
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
BTTS
No 41%
Over 3.5
4%
Team Comparison
57Attack53
71Defense71
Goals/G
1.61.5
Conc/G
0.80.8
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Club Nacional
DDDDW
STABLE
Peñarol Montev…
DLWLW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk32%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateH2H: 4/10 draws (40%) = VERY HIGH riskHome team drew 4/5 recent games
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.92
Club Nacionalvs
0.56
Peñarol Montev…Goal Probability
Club Nacion…
0
5%
1
16%
2
23%
3
22%
4
16%
Peñarol Mon…
0
57%
1
32%
2
9%
3
2%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (28%)0-1 (19%)1-0 (17%)1-1 (11%)0-2 (6%)2-0 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 72% | 28% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 36% | 64% | - |
| 2.5 | 13% | 87% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 4% | 96% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#2
Club Nacion…-1
Gap#1
Peñarol Mon…
WR 56% 87 pts
WR 55% 159 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Nacional | 45 | 25 | 12 | 8 | 73 | 37 | 87 |
| Peñarol Monte… | 83 | 46 | 21 | 16 | 125 | 69 | 159 |
Club Nacional
12.0%
| Nov 23 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 2-2 |
| Nov 09 | Club Na… v Defenso… | 1-1 |
| Nov 01 | Club Na… v Cerrito | 0-0 |
| Oct 26 | Club Na… v Wandere… | 0-0 |
| Oct 18 | Club Na… v Miramar | 3-1 |
| Oct 12 | Club Na… v Danubio | 0-0 |
| Oct 04 | Club Na… v Cerro L… | 2-1 |
| Sep 28 | Club Na… v Juventus | 0-0 |
| Sep 20 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 3-1 |
| Sep 14 | Club Na… v Plaza C… | 1-2 |
Peñarol Montev…
10.0%
| Nov 23 | Peñarol… v Club Na… | 2-2 |
| Nov 16 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 1-2 |
| Nov 09 | Peñarol… v Atletic… | 0-2 |
| Nov 07 | Peñarol… v Cerro L… | 2-0 |
| Nov 02 | Peñarol… v Defenso… | 2-1 |
| Nov 01 | Peñarol… v Juventus | 0-1 |
| Oct 26 | Peñarol… v Progreso | 3-1 |
| Oct 25 | Peñarol… v Cerrito | 2-0 |
| Oct 20 | Peñarol… v Plaza C… | 0-1 |
| Oct 19 | Peñarol… v Rangers… | 3-0 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Nov 23, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-2 | Club Nacional |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Club Nacional | 3-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Aug 09, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 3-0 | Club Nacional |
| Jul 06, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 0-0 | Club Nacional |
| Feb 09, 2025 | Club Nacional | 1-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Club Nacional |
| Oct 06, 2024 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Aug 04, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-1 | Club Nacional |
| Jun 15, 2024 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Feb 06, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Club Nacional |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (30%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.