Primera División - Clausura · Nov 23, 2025 19:30
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 60
Club Nacional
PWR 61
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 60
2 - 2
FT
Club Nacional
PWR 61
43%
25%
32%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Peñarol Montevideo to win (61% confidence)
Score
2-1
Confidence
61%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
0-0 (35%)1-0 (23%)0-1 (13%)1-1 (9%)2-0 (8%)2-1 (3%)
WRONG 2-2
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
9%
Under 2.5
91%
91%
BTTS
No
No 15%
Over 3.5
5%
Team Comparison
53Attack57
71Defense71
Goals/G
1.51.6
Conc/G
0.80.8
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Peñarol Montev…
LWLWL
STABLE
Club Nacional
DDDWD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateH2H: 3/9 draws (33%) = HIGH riskAway team drew 4/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw risk
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.66
Peñarol Montev…vs
0.38
Club NacionalGoal Probability
Peñarol Mon…
0
52%
1
34%
2
11%
3
3%
4
0%
Club Nacion…
0
68%
1
26%
2
5%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (26%)1-0 (23%)0-1 (12%)1-1 (11%)2-0 (10%)2-1 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 74% | 26% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 38% | 62% | - |
| 2.5 | 15% | 85% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Peñarol Mon…+1
Gap#2
Club Nacion…
WR 55% 159 pts
WR 56% 87 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peñarol Monte… | 83 | 46 | 21 | 16 | 125 | 69 | 159 |
| Club Nacional | 45 | 25 | 12 | 8 | 73 | 37 | 87 |
Peñarol Montev…
8.0%
| Nov 16 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 1-2 |
| Nov 09 | Peñarol… v Atletic… | 0-2 |
| Nov 07 | Peñarol… v Cerro L… | 2-0 |
| Nov 02 | Peñarol… v Defenso… | 2-1 |
| Nov 01 | Peñarol… v Juventus | 0-1 |
| Oct 26 | Peñarol… v Progreso | 3-1 |
| Oct 25 | Peñarol… v Cerrito | 2-0 |
| Oct 20 | Peñarol… v Plaza C… | 0-1 |
| Oct 19 | Peñarol… v Rangers… | 3-0 |
| Oct 16 | Peñarol… v Defenso… | 0-2 |
Club Nacional
12.0%
| Nov 09 | Club Na… v Defenso… | 1-1 |
| Nov 01 | Club Na… v Cerrito | 0-0 |
| Oct 26 | Club Na… v Wandere… | 0-0 |
| Oct 18 | Club Na… v Miramar | 3-1 |
| Oct 12 | Club Na… v Danubio | 0-0 |
| Oct 04 | Club Na… v Cerro L… | 2-1 |
| Sep 28 | Club Na… v Juventus | 0-0 |
| Sep 20 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 3-1 |
| Sep 14 | Club Na… v Plaza C… | 1-2 |
| Sep 07 | Club Na… v Racing … | 3-0 |
Head-to-Head (9)
| Sep 20, 2025 | Club Nacional | 3-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Aug 09, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 3-0 | Club Nacional |
| Jul 06, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 0-0 | Club Nacional |
| Feb 09, 2025 | Club Nacional | 1-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Club Nacional |
| Oct 06, 2024 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Aug 04, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-1 | Club Nacional |
| Jun 15, 2024 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Feb 06, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Club Nacional |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Peñarol Montevideo struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.