Super Copa · Jan 26, 2025 23:30
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 63
Club Nacional
PWR 29
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 63
2 - 1
FT
Club Nacional
PWR 29
53%
23%
24%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Under 2.5
Goals · Low scoring expected: 1.4 total goals avg
80%
accuracy
1.7x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Peñarol Montevideo Win
Score
1-0
Confidence
55%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
0-0 (46%)0-1 (22%)1-0 (14%)1-1 (7%)0-2 (5%)2-0 (2%)
CORRECT 2-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
4%
Under 2.5
96%
96%
BTTS
No
No 10%
Over 3.5
5%
Team Comparison
35Attack18
88Defense65
Goals/G
1.00.5
Conc/G
0.31.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Peñarol Montev…
WWWWW
UP
Club Nacional
DWDWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk28%
Accuracy56%
FORM_MOMENTUMHOME_STREAK
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateH2H: 1/4 draws (25%) = HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (28.3%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.30
Peñarol Montev…vs
0.48
Club NacionalGoal Probability
Peñarol Mon…
0
74%
1
22%
2
3%
3
0%
4
0%
Club Nacion…
0
62%
1
30%
2
7%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (26%)1-0 (23%)0-1 (12%)1-1 (11%)2-0 (10%)2-1 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 74% | 26% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 38% | 62% | - |
| 2.5 | 15% | 85% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Peñarol Mon…+1
Gap#2
Club Nacion…
WR 67% 7 pts
WR 0% 1 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peñarol Monte… | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| Club Nacional | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Peñarol Montev…
20.0%
| Dec 01 | Peñarol… v Fenix | 3-1 |
| Nov 30 | Peñarol… v Cerrito | 1-3 |
| Nov 27 | Peñarol… v Progreso | 1-5 |
| Nov 26 | Peñarol… v Rampla … | 0-1 |
| Nov 17 | Peñarol… v Defenso… | 2-0 |
| Nov 17 | Peñarol… v Miramar | 2-2 |
| Nov 14 | Peñarol… v Rangers… | 0-2 |
| Nov 13 | Peñarol… v Cerro L… | 0-0 |
| Nov 09 | Peñarol… v Peñarol… | 2-0 |
| Nov 03 | Peñarol… v River P… | 0-1 |
Club Nacional
16.0%
| Dec 06 | Club Na… v Defenso… | 2-2 |
| Dec 01 | Club Na… v Boston … | 3-1 |
| Nov 28 | Club Na… v Danubio | 0-0 |
| Nov 23 | Club Na… v Atletic… | 4-0 |
| Nov 16 | Club Na… v Deporti… | 5-2 |
| Nov 13 | Club Na… v Fenix | 0-6 |
| Nov 08 | Club Na… v Racing … | 0-2 |
| Nov 02 | Club Na… v Cerrito | 2-0 |
| Oct 29 | Club Na… v Plaza C… | 4-0 |
| Oct 13 | Club Na… v Cerro L… | 0-1 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Oct 06, 2024 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Aug 04, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-1 | Club Nacional |
| Jun 15, 2024 | Club Nacional | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Feb 06, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Club Nacional |
Decision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)
Player
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Peñarol Montevideo in strong form (5W in last 5)
Club Nacional in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.