Copa de la Liga Profesional · May 05, 2024 18:30
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
PWR 52
VĂ©lez Sarsfield
PWR 48
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
PWR 52
1 - 1
FT
VĂ©lez Sarsfield
PWR 48
33%
27%
40%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto to win (61% confidence)
Score
1-0
Confidence
61%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (22%)1-0 (20%)3-0 (16%)0-0 (9%)2-1 (4%)1-1 (4%)
WRONG 1-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
No
No 16%
Over 3.5
2%
Team Comparison
40Attack38
68Defense62
Goals/G
1.21.1
Conc/G
0.91.1
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Estudiantes de…
DWLLL
STABLE
VĂ©lez Sarsfield
LWDWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk27%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 4% = 35.1% draw rateElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.17
Estudiantes de…vs
0.20
VĂ©lez SarsfieldGoal Probability
Estudiantes…
0
11%
1
25%
2
27%
3
19%
4
11%
Vélez Sarsf…
0
82%
1
16%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (36%)0-1 (23%)1-0 (14%)1-1 (9%)0-2 (7%)2-0 (3%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 64% | 36% | - |
| 1.5 | 28% | 73% | UNDER |
| 2.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#3
Estudiantes…+3
Gap#6
Vélez Sarsf…
WR 46% 21 pts
WR 42% 19 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes d… | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 21 |
| Vélez Sarsfie… | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 19 |
Estudiantes de…
6.0%
| Apr 30 | Estudia… v Boca Ju… | 1-1 |
| Apr 13 | Estudia… v Boca Ju… | 1-0 |
| Mar 29 | Estudia… v Defensa… | 1-0 |
| Mar 09 | Estudia… v Sarmien… | 3-1 |
| Mar 06 | Estudia… v Platense | 1-2 |
| Feb 19 | Estudia… v Newell’… | 2-0 |
| Feb 09 | Estudia… v Tigre | 2-0 |
| Dec 14 | Estudia… v Defensa… | 1-0 |
| Nov 26 | Estudia… v Deporti… | 1-1 |
| Nov 23 | Estudia… v Boca Ju… | 2-3 |
VĂ©lez Sarsfield
14.0%
| Mar 30 | Vélez S… v Tallere… | 1-0 |
| Mar 17 | Vélez S… v Institu… | 1-0 |
| Feb 27 | Vélez S… v Tigre | 2-2 |
| Feb 15 | Vélez S… v Deporti… | 1-2 |
| Feb 10 | Vélez S… v Gimnasi… | 3-1 |
| Feb 04 | Vélez S… v River P… | 5-0 |
| Jan 31 | Vélez S… v Indepen… | 0-1 |
| Nov 05 | Vélez S… v Tallere… | 1-1 |
| Oct 29 | Vélez S… v Institu… | 0-1 |
| Sep 29 | Vélez S… v Tigre | 0-0 |
Head-to-Head (6)
| May 08, 2023 | Estudiantes d… | 2-0 | Vélez Sarsfie… |
| Oct 17, 2022 | Vélez Sarsfie… | 4-0 | Estudiantes d… |
| May 24, 2022 | Vélez Sarsfie… | 4-0 | Estudiantes d… |
| Apr 08, 2022 | Estudiantes d… | 4-1 | Vélez Sarsfie… |
| Mar 07, 2022 | Vélez Sarsfie… | 1-1 | Estudiantes d… |
| Nov 28, 2021 | Estudiantes d… | 1-0 | Vélez Sarsfie… |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
93%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (39%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
VĂ©lez Sarsfield in strong form (3W in last 5)
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.