KNVB Beker · Mar 04, 2026 19:00
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 66
Telstar
PWR 57
AZ Alkmaar
PWR 66
2 - 1
FT
Telstar
PWR 57
47%
25%
28%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
1X (Home/Draw)
Double Chance · Odds imply 66% home + 20% draw = 86% combined
92%
accuracy
1.22x
Final Verdict
Prediction
AZ Alkmaar Win
Score
4-2
Confidence
55%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (10%)2-1 (10%)1-0 (9%)3-0 (8%)1-1 (8%)3-1 (8%)
CORRECT 2-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
86%
Home/Draw
1.22x
DC X2
Away/Draw
3.09x
Over 2.5
61%
61%
Under 2.5
39%
BTTS
Yes 55%
Over 3.5
50%
Team Comparison
81Attack65
54Defense50
Goals/G
2.31.9
Conc/G
1.31.4
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
AZ Alkmaar
LWWLW
STABLE
Telstar
WLDDW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk26%
Accuracy56%
POSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAP
Full data available (Tier 1)Away team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (26.4%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.38
AZ Alkmaarvs
0.92
TelstarGoal Probability
AZ Alkmaar
0
9%
1
22%
2
26%
3
21%
4
12%
Telstar
0
40%
1
37%
2
17%
3
5%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
2-1 (9%)1-1 (8%)3-1 (7%)2-2 (7%)2-0 (6%)1-2 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% | - |
| 4.5 | 31% | 70% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 16% | 84% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 8% | 92% | UNDER |
League Position
#2
AZ Alkmaar+12
Gap#14
Telstar
WR 63% 33 pts
WR 57% 12 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 21 | 33 |
| Telstar | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 12 |
AZ Alkmaar
12.0%
| Mar 01 | AZ Alkm… v Utrecht | 2-0 |
| Feb 26 | AZ Alkm… v Artsakh | 4-0 |
| Feb 22 | AZ Alkm… v Sparta … | 3-1 |
| Feb 19 | AZ Alkm… v Artsakh | 1-0 |
| Feb 14 | AZ Alkm… v Excelsi… | 1-2 |
| Feb 08 | AZ Alkm… v Ajax | 1-1 |
| Feb 03 | AZ Alkm… v FC Twen… | 2-1 |
| Jan 31 | AZ Alkm… v NEC Nij… | 1-3 |
| Jan 25 | AZ Alkm… v Telstar | 0-1 |
| Jan 21 | AZ Alkm… v Excelsi… | 1-1 |
Telstar
12.0%
| Feb 27 | Telstar v NAC Bre… | 3-0 |
| Feb 22 | Telstar v Feyenoo… | 2-1 |
| Feb 15 | Telstar v FC Twen… | 1-1 |
| Feb 08 | Telstar v GO Ahea… | 1-1 |
| Feb 05 | Telstar v GO Ahea… | 2-1 |
| Jan 31 | Telstar v PEC Zwo… | 4-1 |
| Jan 25 | Telstar v AZ Alkm… | 0-1 |
| Jan 17 | Telstar v Excelsi… | 2-2 |
| Jan 14 | Telstar v Almere … | 1-3 |
| Jan 11 | Telstar v Ajax | 2-3 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Jan 25, 2026 | Telstar | 0-1 | AZ Alkmaar |
| Oct 05, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 2-1 | Telstar |
Decision Breakdown
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)ODDS60+M70 (77.4%)GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
86%
Standings
50%
Market
68%
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
AZ Alkmaar in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.